Always on my mind: Indication of post-traumatic stress disorder in flood victims after the 2021 flood event in the Ahr Valley

Abstract

From 12 to 15 July, extreme rainfall occurred in Western Europe. In Germany, severe flood events hit the federal states of Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, and Saxony, which were affected with an overall damage of 33 billion euros and around 190 flood fatalities. Most affected was the Ahr Valley in Rhineland-Palatinate with 134 fatalities and two missing people.

Many people lost their homes, relatives or friends, were wounded or are occupied with reconstruction works or finances. Such experiences can bother people for years after the actual event happened and can lead to severe mental health impacts such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). PTSD can occur due to a person`s exposure to a potentially traumatic event, which is characterized by the following two conditions: First, the person experienced or witnessed an event that posed a serious threat of death or serious injury for him or herself or another person. Second, the reaction to that event included intense fear, helplessness or horror. Given the severity of the event, it can be expected that a significant share of the resident population affected by flooding in July 2021 was exposed to a situation matching these conditions. Still, insights into mental health effects of severe flooding are largely lacking, but urgently needed for more flood-resilient societies.

To better understand the mental health effects of extreme flood events, an online survey in the district of Ahrweiler, Rhineland-Palatinate, was conducted one year after the flooding event, i.e., from June to August 2022). The affected households were randomly sampled by contacting 1 in 3 households who had applied for financial emergency relief (‘Soforthilfe’).

To detect indications of PTSD among affected residents, we used the German version of a short epidemiological screening scale for PTSD. By calculating a binary PTSD score, we estimate the number of flood victims showing an indication to suffer from PTSD. Results show that 28.2% of the respondents show indications of suffering from PTSD one year after the flood event. Moreover, we will use logistic regression analyses to identify risk and protective factors for developing indications for PTSD.

The findings from our study are important to raise awareness of the long-term indirect impacts of flooding. They can improve integrated flood risk management, for instance, by better accounting for the need for psychological assistance in the aftermath of flooding and by identifying groups that are particularly vulnerable for developing a PTSD in the aftermath of flooding.