Augmented public futures: A reflection on future visioning and scenarios of augmented realities in public space

Abstract

Futures of emerging technologies such as augmented realities (AR) produce a range of future visions, often ranging from a hype, utopian “bold and hyperbolic futures” (Liao & Iliadis 2021: 261) to fears of their risks, negative effects and dystopian futures. On the one hand, studying future visions of emerging technologies brings to fore the political economy of research and development of such technologies. On the other hand, the development of plausible scenarios of what those futures might look like, seeks stimulating active socio-political negotiations of which futures are desirable (or not) and should (not) be pursued. Bringing together an interdisciplinary team of technology assessment and geography scholars, this paper unites perspectives of future studies with critical and posthuman perspectives on future visioning. It introduces the method and presents results of a survey-based scenario-building that involved experts working in Central Europe from diverse fields, among others, from technology development, technology assessment, policy-making and research, who were asked: What are plausible scenarios of augmented reality use in public spaces over the next 5-10 years? We outline four “extreme ends” of plausible scenarios of the role of Augmented Realities in the future of public spaces that were the outcome: “autocratic augmented reality”, “big-tech monopoly”, “self-curated proliferation” and “participatory public space”. We conclude with a discussion of what effects these scenarios would have on societies, politics, economies and the environment, and a critical reflection of the scenario-building itself and its limits.