Global bioenergy requirements not compatible with biodiversity conservation targets

Abstract

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in December 2022 sets out a number of global targets for biodiversity protection. One of which is to ensure that at least 30% of terrestrial and inland water areas are effectively conserved and managed (CBD 2022). Land area becomes increasingly stressed throughout this century as competition for space with agricultural areas for food crops and bioenergy plantations heighten. We analyse various SSP-RCP combinations for future land-use projections (LUH2 dataset) to determine whether or not it is possible to simultaneously achieve (i) 30% effective land conservation (ii) production of enough food crops for a growing population, and (iii) production of bioenergy crops. The LUH2 dataset is amongst the most widely used global land use projections. It has been used in a large number of studies that assessed future trajectories for biodiversity and climate change. Some of the scenarios include bioenergy croplands of more than one billion ha, combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

Even though analyses are still ongoing, we hypothesize that protected areas and forests remain largely untouched in the scenarios because protecting these are fundamental assumptions in the underlying Integrated Assessment Models. However, it remains to be analysed to what extent the harmonization of past land use reconstructions (HYDE) with future land use change scenarios in LUH2 undoes some of the basic model assumptions. We also hypothesize that Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are poorly protected in the future scenarios, in particular those outside forests. The biodiversity and local livelihoods depending on it in extensively managed steppe and grassland ecosystems, for example, has received little attention in the analyses of global land use scenarios. Furthermore, biodiversity is complex and its spatial distribution depends on the used indicator and values (Voskamp et al. 2022). This complexity has been ignored in most global land use scenario studies.

The issues raised above need to be discussed scientifically and at the science-policy interface. Because of their strong implications for food security and climate mitigation policies, global land use change scenarios can have substantial impacts on decision making. If important trade-offs and synergies with biodiversity protection and multiple sustainability goals are not adequately captured and discussed, there is high risk that societal and political decisions will lead to unintended side-effects. At the conference, we will present our latest results and intend to conclude with suggestions for how global land use change scenarios should be improved to account for biodiversity targets.