Insights on the use of agent-based modelling (ABM) in climate resilience studies

Abstract

Throughout human history, societies have developed strategies to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Current and future impacts of global climate change with more frequent and intense weather events are demanding for a closer look at this ability to cope and adapt to hazardous events or trends. Understanding how communities have adapted over time, how they are currently dealing with new risks emerging due to climate change impacts, and which future pathways could be ahead of them is necessary to develop effective adaptation strategies and ensure a sustainable, climate resilient world. However, it is not easy to capture complex interactions of individuals with each other and the environment under changing conditions, with the result that the “human factor” is often neglected by policy makers. An approach to holistically assess these interactions involve the use of modelling tools that focus on exploring the behavior of people under different scenarios.

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a fairly novel methodology, in which a system is modeled as a collection of autonomous decision-making entities (agents). These agents are self-contained computer programs that interact with one another and the environment. ABM is commonly used to describe and analyze rule-based behaviors and modes of interaction of social entities at different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, ABM offers the opportunity of modelling and understanding response behaviors of agents (e.g. individuals, communities) facing hazardous events including threats posed by climate change impacts. In research, ABM has been used to gain insights of complex systems under investigation, by simulating scenarios that focus on the local people’s adaptive responses to changing climatic conditions.

There are other models that provide valuable knowledge on human-environment/ environment-human impacts, however, the behavior of people and their beliefs about risks and chances, as well as their resilience strategies to changing environmental conditions are often too simplified or neglected completely. In this regard, ABM can be a powerful tool for assessing climate resilience by providing a detailed understanding of how different agents and factors interact within systems that have been threatened by hazards in the past and which are now dealing with new emerging risks due to climate change impacts. The presentation will give a short, explorative overview on ABM in climate resilience studies, with particular emphasis on the potential uses of the tool to fill gaps in research and to provide insights for policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to climate change impacts.