Multi-hazard impact chain: Lessons from the co-occurrence of 2020-2021 flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania

Abstract

The co-occurrence of multiple natural hazards and of the COVID-19 pandemic represented a game changer for multi-hazard management practices, exposing the inability of traditional strategies to address new, compounded multi-hazard needs. These emerging challenges call for research tools and approaches that aid in the understanding of the intricate interactions between simultaneous hazards, which are pivotal for effective hazard management.

This study aims to construct an impact chain starting from two independent, co-occurrent hazardous events that affected Romania in 2020-2021, namely river floods and the COVID-19 pandemic. The research design focuses on the flood events that imposed the evacuation of the population, creating further challenges for the maintenance of the preventive protocols against the spread of theSARS-CoV-2 virus.

The impact chain integrates data relating to the hazards, exposed elements, impacts, vulnerabilities and drivers relevant to the proposed multi-hazard, as well as different types of connections between these elements. Multiple information sources were used to build the impact chain, ranging from scientific literature, to hydrological warnings, official reports and grey literature.

The results show that the building stock, the assets, and the population were among the most impacted exposed elements. In addition, certain impacts could have been mitigated, if not avoided all together, if vulnerability reduction-oriented efforts had been performed. Since the main identified drivers of the impact chain (i.e., poverty, a lack of enforcement of construction regulations, shallow flood risk awareness) are similar or identical to the drivers of earthquake-related impact chains, it appears that a synergy of deeply-rooted factors is emerging.

The study is a continuation of the research work focusing on the multi-hazard impact and management in Romania. It adds to the scientific literature by broadening the understanding of the links between the impacts and vulnerabilities of different co-occurring hazards, as well as between different hazard management practices. Up to date, this is the first paper that uses an impact chain approach to investigate the above said hazards in Romania. The impact chain puts forward the bigger picture of multi-hazard management in a country that has not previously faced such tall orders in modern times. Furthermore, by organising and displaying all of the relevant elements of the multi-hazard, the study highlights the gaps between flood and COVID-19 pandemic management strategies, paving the way for improved, updated natural multi-hazard management practices.