The importance of water in climate and conflict in Africa

Abstract

The relationship between climatic conditions and the occurrence of conflict or cooperation in Africa can only be understood if key intermediate variables are considered. These are generally affected by climate dynamics and have a profound impact on individual human wellbeing and security, and subsequently on actions, interactions and the stability of societies. One of these key variables is the availability of water for human consumption or for use in economic production. In comparison with other continents, the per capita use of water has been relatively low in the past. However, in recent years water use has expanded in conjunction with a growing population and an increased economic output, all leading to a considerable growth in water demand. A key challenge in the coming decades will be for African countries to allocate the vast water resources of the continent to not only supply their populations with sufficient water but also fulfill the constantly growing demands by industry and agriculture, particularly if the variability of water availability increases due to the effects of climate change.

In addition to temperature effects, climate change may cause variations in precipitation patterns and thus shifts of regional water distribution. Climate models are somewhat ambiguous about the precipitation effect of climate change in Africa but some regions may benefit from additional water input into rivers and lakes, while others will become distinctly drier. These physical effects can regionally be augmented by changes in land use patterns due to intensified agricultural production and the expansion of settlement areas because of population growth as well as increased water use by industrial activities initiated by foreign investors who seek to produce goods for export from the African continent.

Taken together, these factors will affect practically all parts of Africa. An analytical framework is presented that combines the external influences on water resources and describes the relationship between climate change and the possibility for conflict or cooperation. Different water regions are distinguished that are likely to be influenced by changes in water in characteristic ways. In transboundary river systems the progressing stress on water resources increases downstream and can create tensions and conflict between riparians. In large lakes water quality issues may arise that have an impact on fisheries and agriculture along the shores. In already water scarce regions and desert areas, existing schemes to cope with limited water availability may experience even greater pressure, putting an additional strain on these regions’ adaptive capacities.