The influence of climate change within the complex fabric of translocal migration and livelihood management: Findings from a multi-methods study in West Africa

Abstract

It is estimated that there will be an exorbitant number of climate refugees or migrants by 2050 with numbers varying widely (World Bank 2021 ; World Economic Forum 2021 ). There is certainly a relation between climate change and migration but causal links between both cannot be clearly derived from statistics. Migration decisions and patterns are complex and influenced by many factors. This ongoing research looks at migration through a translocal lens: Rural households split across locations and income sources to spread risks, respond to environmental change, and maintain the persistence of the rural community. The study investigates the complexities of migration in the context of climate change in West Africa as a whole, and in Sierra Leone in particular.

Translocality is difficult to identify as most statistics refer to international or internal migration of entire households. For this reason, we apply a mixed methods approach. On the one hand, an ensemble of six climate models is applied to analyse the impact of climate change on a set of bioclimatic indicators, e.g., volumetric soil water or the maximum length of dry spells within a year. These indicators provide an insight into changing agricultural conditions. Simultaneously, we analyse recent migration on a sub-national level across West Africa so a correlation analysis may point out a potential relation between climate change and migration. On the other hand, we conduct a bi-local household survey in the Tonkolili District of Sierra Leone and in Freetown to inform the interpretation of quantitative results. This information is enriched by qualitative interviews with migrants in the city and household members left behind in the rural areas especially regarding the reasons for their migration decisions.

Like many parts of Africa, Sierra Leone is predominantly covered by forest and agricultural land-uses (World Bank 2022a, 2022b). These sectors constitute the main sources of income for much of the rural population (Braima & Turay 2017, 20). Agriculture ties up the majority of the country’s workforce and continues to account for the highest share of GDP (World Bank 2023 ). However, agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change.

While a climate impact analysis of predominantly agricultural areas is ongoing, first findings from the qualitative workstream of this research show that fewer rains, shorter rainy seasons, and generally deteriorating agricultural conditions have increased the hardships of the rural population. To adapt, many young people explore off-farm work in the cities to provide for their rural households. While this translocal adaptation strategy may contribute to reducing starvation during the rainy season, it also severely reduces the agricultural workforce. Additionally, it adds to friction within families with an increasing number of divorces in rural areas being reported.