The role of climatic and environmental factors for German internal- and international migration: A panel analysis from 2002-2018

Abstract

The extent, intensity, and impacts of climate and environmental change are increasing, and this is not just the case in countries of the Global South but also in countries of the Global North. The literature agrees that climate and environmental change can act as a risk multiplier that can, directly and indirectly, affect people’s aspirations and capabilities to move (De Haas, 2021). Most studies covering the nexus of climate, environment, and migration are conducted at the national level in countries of the Global South or the Mediterranean region while predominantly focusing on the impacts of climate on international migration due to the broader data availability of international migration data (Biagi et al., 2011; Laczko, 2009). The small number of studies that do focus on the impact of climatic and environmental factors on migration either use estimates of migration based on Census data (population, population growth, nativity, and mortality) or urbanization rates to estimate rural-urban migration within a country (Hoffmann et al., 2020). Due to the lack of studies in Europe, we will conduct a panel analysis for Germany, assessing the relationship between climatic and environmental factors and both internal and international net migration rates per 1000 inhabitants from 2002-2018. The panel analysis will be applied at the municipality level, considering various climatic (sunshine, temperature, and precipitation) and environmental factors (pollutants, pollen, discharge, vegetation, and wildfire) while controlling for economic migration. The study aims to determine the importance of climatic and environmental factors for internal and international migration in Germany, whether there are any differences between the two types of migration, and whether any temporal or spatial trends exist. This research will provide essential insights into the role of environmental and climatic factors for internal and international German migration, which can then inform measures to mitigate climate and environmental impacts reducing migration pressures and supporting migration as adaptation in places where habitability is drastically reduced by changing climatic and environmental conditions.