AlpSenseRely: Challenging the predictability of climate-induced impacts on alpine hazards

Abstract

Increased frequencies and magnitudes of climate-related alpine hazards in the last three decades significantly threaten alpine communities, infrastructure, and economies. Rock falls, slope failures, debris flows, and other mass movements show increasing response to melting glaciers, degrading permafrost and more frequent heavy rainfall events. In the foreseeable future, alpine hazards beyond our historic recognition will occur and scientific understanding is the only anticipative tool to prepare for the related risks. Therefore, we need dedicated research in risk anticipation, clever early warning strategies and purposive measures. Until now, a systematic analysis of the predictive power of a multi-method approach for climate-induced natural hazards is missing.

AlpSenseRely is a 3-year project funded by the Bavarian STMUV and aims at anticipating climate induced natural hazards comprehensively at an early stage for Bavaria and the European alpine region. AlpSenseRely quantifies the climate forcing and provides all relevant information for preparation of future events. The project systematically explores the capacity of space-borne, air-borne, and terrestrial high-resolution observation and monitoring in a changing climate. For this, we have chosen six representative test sites mostly in the critical 2000-3000+ m a.s.l. range of the eastern Alps, where the effects of climate change are most evident and cause frequent landslides and permafrost- or glacier-degradation related hazards in the vicinity of a dense tourist infrastructure. The test sites all (i) undergo massive environmental change, (ii) cause frequent natural hazards, (iii) have well-established and relatively dense tourist infrastructure and (iv) provide unique long-term observation and monitoring histories often dating back to the 19th century.

Here, we present the setup and preliminary results of the AlpSenseRely project: (i) monitoring at the test sites, (ii) integration of stakeholders, (iii) identification of hazard hotspots, (iv) modelling of hazardous objects, (v) near real-time monitoring and early warning strategies and (vi) 3D visualization.