Refocusing Africa’s core policies in line with disaster risk trends in the last decade

Vortrag

Teil der Sitzung

[FS-213] Trotz Ungewissheit Agieren: Zukunftserwartungen und Handlungsstrategien in einer Welt von Krisen und Umbrüchen (1/2)

Sitzungstermin

Mittwoch (20. September 2023), 09:00–10:30

Sitzungsraum

SH 0.107

Autor*innen

Emmanuel Eze (Universität Heidelberg)

Alexander Siegmund (PH Heidelberg)

Kurzbeschreibung

We assessed Africa’s disaster risk trends and factors and core policies to evaluate how these policies reflect the risk factors. Our results could drive tailor-made and evidence-based policies for African countries.

Schlagwörter

Africa disaster risk, floods, policy assessment, Sendai framework, violent conflicts

Abstract

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction prioritizes increasing awareness of disaster risk and strengthening disaster governance and management. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) having passed its midpoint, it is critical to examine how the vulnerable continent has fared thus far. Previous assessments across Africa show increased frequency and severity of hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires, conflicts and epidemics. While climate change could fuel natural hazards, the co-occurrence of human hazards, especially violent conflicts, and other factors like exposure and vulnerability of the African population could lead to disasters with attendant impacts. Notably, disasters both worsen and are worsened by poverty.

This study is motivated by the need to have an overview of Africa’s disaster risk profile, and determine trends and influencing factors. Further questions pursued within the study include how much disaster risk factor concepts are contained within core policies such as DRR, National Adaptation Programme of Action and Nationally Determined Contributions. We also attempt to correlate countries’ disaster risk indexes with climate change awareness and belief rates. We used for analyses of climate change literacy and belief, data from the Afrobarometer, and disaster risk data from the Index for Risk Management (INFORM) of the European Commission. Machine learning techniques were preferred for robust results.

Flood is Africa’s only natural hazard significantly influencing disaster risk, while violent conflicts (current and projected) are the human hazard factors. Other vital variables are related to vulnerability and lack of coping capacity factors. Countries with higher climate change awareness rates had lower disaster risks. However, these higher awareness rates are also related to higher beliefs that ordinary people can do little about addressing climate change. Emerging hotspots are also identified. Findings of this study can inform evidence-based policies and interventions tailored to specific disaster risks, hazards, and contexts.